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城镇化(urbanization)导致了巨大的住房需求。出口导向型经济(export-oriented economy)吸引了大量劳动力从农村来到城市。高等教育的迅速扩张也通过提供教育机会致使大量知识分子涌人城市。社会资源分布不均使得只有少数城市成为人口迁移的理想目的地，这就进一步加大了一些大城市的住房需求。人们对未来的不确定使他们将房产当作他们养老金的“最后一根稻草”。传统的观念植根于中国文化。人们认为拥有房产是长期居住的先决条件。
假设一个经济有以下菲利普斯曲线：π=π-1-0.5(u-0.06)。
a．自然失业率是多少？
b．画出通货膨胀与失业之间的短期与长期关系。
c．为了使通货膨胀减少5个百分点，必须有多少周期性失业？用奥肯定律计算牺牲率。
d．通货膨胀为10%，美联储想把它降到5%。给出两种能达到这个目标的方案。
Suppose that an economy has the Phillips curve π=π-1-0.5(u-0.06)．
a．What is the natural rate of unemployment？
b．Graph the short-run and long-run relationships between inflation and unemployment.
c．How much cyclical unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation by 5 percentage points？ Using Okun's law, compute the sacrifice ratio.
d．Inflation is running at 10 percent. The Fed wants to reduce it to 5 percent. Give two scenarios that will achieve that goal.
下列报道摘自《美元坚挺的惊讶》(Dollar's Strength a Surprise)，《纽约时报》，p.D1，1989-08-07：
“但是，现在有一种观点认为，经济正在朝”软着陆“的方向行进，经济增长明显放慢，通货膨胀率降低，但经济衰退并没有发生。
这种前景对美元的坚挺是有利的。原因有二：第一，软着陆不像衰退那样具有破坏性，因此，支撑美元的外国投资很可能持续下去：
第二，软着陆不会迫使美联储为刺激增长而降低利率。利率下降会对美元产生贬值的压力，这是因为，利率下降会使美元证券对外国人的吸引力下降，诱使人们抛出美元。此外。由软着陆预期而产生的乐观因素甚至可以抵消一些由利率下降带给美元的贬值压力。”
a．试用本章所学的汇率决定模型解释报道的第三段。
b．还有什么汇率决定因素有助于解释第二段？
The following report appeared in the New York Times on August 7,1989(“Dollar's Strength a Surprise，”p.DI)：
But now the sentiment is that the economy is heading for a“soft landing”with the economy slowing significantly and inflation subsiding，but without a recession．
This outlook is good for the dollar for two reasons．A soft landing is not as disruptive as a recession，so the foreign investments that support the dollar are more likely to continue．
Also，a soft landing would not force the Federal Reserve to push interest rates sharply lower to stimulate growth．Falling interest rates can put downward pressure on the dollar because they make investments in dollar-denominated securities less attractive to foreigners，prompting the selling of dollars．In addition，the optimism sparked by the expectation of a soft landing can even offset some of the pressure on the dollar from lower interest rates．
a．Show how you would interpret the third paragraph of this report using this chapter's model of exchange rate determination．
b．What additional factors in exchange rate determination might help you explain the second paragraph？
下，美国的储蓄、投资、贸易余额、利率以及汇率会发生什么变动？(为了使事情简单化，分别考察下面每一种影响。)
a．美国政府由于担心自己需要介入战争，增加了对军事装备的购买。
b．其他国家增加了对高技术武器的需求，这是美国的主要出口。
c．战争使美国企业对未来无法确定．而且，企业的一些投资项目被延期。
d．战争使美国消费者对未来无法确定，而且做出的反应是储蓄更多。
e．美国人变得害怕出国旅行，因此更多的人在美国度假。
f．外国投资者在美国为他们的投资组合寻找一个避风港。
If a war broke out abroad, it would affect the U.S. economy in many ways, Use the model of the large open economy to examine each of the following effects of such a war. What happens in the United States to saving, investment, the trade balance, the interest rate, and the exchange rate？ (To keep things simple, consider each of the following effects separately.)
a．The U.S. government, fearing it may need to enter the war, increases its purchases of military equipment.
b．Other countries raise their demand for high-tech weapons, a major export of the United States.
e．The war makes U.S. firms uncertain about the future, and the firms delay some investment projects.
d．The war makes U.S. consumers uncertain about the future, and the consumers save more in response.
e．Americans become apprehensive about traveling abroad, so more of them spend their vacations in the United States.
f．Foreign investors seek a safe haven for their portfolios in the United States.
A.are referred to
B.are referred
C.referred to
D.referring to
A.Economy
B.Ambition
C.Prohibition
D.Economics
A.economic
B.economy
C.economist
D.economical
